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Does Aging Affect Your Financial Decision Making?
June 20th, 201109:36 AM ETBy Mark BillerClosing out the recent Morningstar investment conference was Harvard's Robert I. Goldman Professor of Economics David Laibson. He tackled the unpleasant but important topic of cognitive decline among the elderly and the impact it has on their financial and investing decisions. Combining information from this summary of Laibson's address ... -
Repairing the wall of worry
March 28th, 201103:24 PM ETBy Mark BillerA week ago, I wrote about the fact that the market tends to experience 5% pullbacks quite often, noting that the most recent one is the sixth such pullback during the current two-year current bull market. One of the main points of that post was that regardless of the recent events in Japan and the Middle East/North Africa, the market was "o... -
Well-Reasoned Forecasts
January 20th, 201102:18 PM ETBy Mark BillerWe normally don't spend much (if any) time discussing various forecasts for the new year. That's because we think very little of most attempts at forecasting — it mostly amounts to guessing, and that we can do without. That said, I do still read some forecasts every year. I do this not because I'm particularly interested in what the authors... -
Why Isn't the Fed More Worried About Inflation?
November 19th, 201008:52 AM ETBy Mark BillerI thought some readers might find it helpful to understand why the Fed doesn't appear to be as concerned as many commentators about the risk of future inflation. Note that I'm not writing this explanation because I necessarily think the Fed is right and its critics are wrong. This is simply to help you understand both sides of the argument a ... -
What is Market History Telling Us?
September 16th, 201001:58 PM ETBy Mark BillerHere's an interesting study from Bespoke Investment Group. They went back to 1928 looking for the six-month period where the stock market most closely resembled the six months we've just been through. Then they looked to see what the future held from that point. See their study and charts here. Particularly noteworthy is the way that 1959/60 peri... -
Are stocks cheap right now, or not?
September 09th, 201001:42 PM ETBy Mark BillerThis question is more difficult to answer than you might expect. On the one hand, plenty of observers are ready to declare that stocks are very attractively priced. Most focus on the traditional price-earnings multiple (P/E) we discussed in detail in our June and July SMI newsletters. Here's an example (from an Associated Press article)... -
Are bonds bubbling?
August 25th, 201004:39 PM ETBy Mark BillerEconomists and investing analysts are engaged in a serious debate about whether the U.S. economy is headed toward inflation or deflation. The deflation arguments have picked up speed this summer, fueled by an increase in reports showing that the economy appears to be slowing again. While the experts remain (sharply) divided about whether we will t... -
Employees Still Taking Huge Risks with Their 401(k)s
August 19th, 201011:59 AM ETBy Mark BillerWe've been writing for years about the huge risk employees take with their 401(k) savings when they invest a large portion in the company stock of their employer. And while the trends have improved over the years, this new Forbes report indicates a whole lot of employees have yet to get the message. For example, when we last wrote about this ... -
Fund investing: How the mighty have fallen — but that's OK
May 14th, 201008:20 AM ETBy Mark BillerWhen a certain mutual fund does especially well for you during a particular market season, it's easy to fall in love and hold on to that fund forever (or at least much longer than you otherwise would, absent the initial success). That can be a big mistake. One of the primary virtues of SMI's Fund Upgrading strategy is it helps keep us from get... -
How important are mutual fund expenses really?
March 26th, 201012:15 PM ETBy Mark BillerYou've probably seen articles explaining that mutual fund investors pay higher costs than they realize due to funds incurring "hidden" costs that aren't reflected in the published "expense ratio." Such articles (here's a recent example from Morningstar) usually disparage funds that do a lot of trading because they tend to incur higher levels of t...
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